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Wednesday
Dec 19, 2018
Peer mentoring & discussions: Chapter 5 & "Sorry ARIMA, but I’m Going Bayesian"
The Tech Academy

We're back to our discussion format so there will be no presentation this month.

Our topics will be:

1) Chapter 5 of "Bayesian Methods for Hackers" https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers Please take a look at it. It's perfectly OK if you are just starting the book. Come with your questions and we will discuss them.

2) "Sorry ARIMA, but I’m Going Bayesian" https://multithreaded.stitchfix.com/blog/2016/04/21/forget-arima/ I haven't dug in to this post but this is a perfect chance to figure out what the author is trying to say. The code in the article is in R ... why not try to reimplement it in your favorite language.

Note the doors will be locked. Please try to arrive by 6:15 and reach me here or on twitter, @JulioBarros, if you have any questions or need to be let in. Thanks.

Website
Saturday
Feb 9
CANCELED WEATHER: Time Series Prediction of SNOTEL Data
Portland Community Church

Check back for a rescheduled time.

Sunil Rao will be presenting his past research on SNOTEL data using the time series prediction.

Drought is a serious problem in much of the U.S., with the worst conditions across the southern and western parts of the nation. Much of irrigation and recreation facilities depend on proper forecasting of streamflow. The water supply for irrigation largely comes from rivers and creeks, whose streamflow originates from the springtime melting of winter snow. A water supply forecast is a prediction of streamflow volume that will flow past a point on a stream during a specified season, typically in the spring and summer. One of the primary sources for the data is through NRCS SNOTEL( Snow Telemetry) data (available to public as part of tax dollars at work). In this demo, we showcase one such tool (Timeseries ARIMAX model) to forecast Streamflow volume for Deschutes River Basin, OR and later compare with actual data to see how it performed.

If you would like to join the discussion check us out on Zoom https://zoom.us/j/7891236789.

Do you want to learn and share your passion in a supportive community? Knowledge Mavens is an ethos of sharing, creativity, and inspiration.

Our Meetup provides an opportunity to "Show and Tell" followed by feedback and Q&A. You'll have the opportunity to share with our channels such as Meetup, GitHub, YouTube, and Facebook to connect with more passionate people.

The second half of our session we'll collaborate on new topics. The winner wins an award for the most interesting topic and the opportunity to share in an upcoming session.

Website
Saturday
Mar 16
Time Series Prediction of SNOTEL Data
Portland Community Church

Sunil Rao will be presenting his past research on SNOTEL data using the time series prediction.

Drought is a serious problem in much of the U.S., with the worst conditions across the southern and western parts of the nation. Much of irrigation and recreation facilities depend on proper forecasting of streamflow. The water supply for irrigation largely comes from rivers and creeks, whose streamflow originates from the springtime melting of winter snow. A water supply forecast is a prediction of streamflow volume that will flow past a point on a stream during a specified season, typically in the spring and summer. One of the primary sources for the data is through NRCS SNOTEL( Snow Telemetry) data (available to the public as part of tax dollars at work). In this demo, we showcase one such tool (Timeseries ARIMAX model) to forecast Streamflow volume for Deschutes River Basin, OR and later compare with actual data to see how it performed.

If you would like to join the discussion check us out on Zoom https://zoom.us/j/7891236789.

Do you want to learn and share your passion in a supportive community? Knowledge Mavens is an ethos of sharing, creativity, and inspiration. Our Meetup provides an opportunity to "Show and Tell" followed by feedback and Q&A. You'll have the opportunity to share with our channels such as Meetup, GitHub, YouTube, and Facebook to connect with more passionate people. The second half of our session we'll collaborate on new topics. The winner wins the most interesting topic and the opportunity to share in an upcoming session.

Directions:

Website
Saturday
Mar 30
CANCELLED - Time Series Prediction of SNOTEL
Portland Community Church

Sorry everyone, our event host is unable to make it today.

Website